Japan’s Offshore-Wind Breakthrough: Opening the EEZ to Clean-Energy Giants

At 11:47 a.m. on 3 June 2025 the House of Councilors approved an amendment to the Renewable Sea-area Utilization Act. With a single vote Japan moved the legal boundary for commercial wind farms from a narrow 12-nautical-mile strip into its entire Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), an ocean area larger than India. Industry analysts immediately highlighted the scale of the shift: the Japan Wind Power Association now pegs the exploitable wind resource at ≈ 552 GW, more than four times the nation’s present electricity demand.

From Promise to Progress: The Capacity Gap

By the end of 2024, Japan had installed less than a quarter of a gigawatt of offshore wind. Yet government road-maps still call for 10 GW by 2030 and 30–45 GW by 2040. The chart above places those ambitions next to the installed base; the contrast underlines why policymakers needed a dramatic legal reset.

Year	Installed capacity (GW)	Official target (GW)	Annual build required to hit target
2024	0.253	–	–
2030	–	10	1.6 GW per year (2025-30)
2040	–	45	4.9 GW per year (2031-40)

What the table shows — Reaching the 2040 goal demands a build-out rate about twenty times faster than Japan has ever achieved.

As of December 2024, only 253 MW had been commissioned, scarcely three midsized turbines’ worth in European terms. Project financiers cited three stubborn bottlenecks: leases capped at 30 years, marathon environmental studies that every developer had to repeat, and a ban on foreign heavy-lift vessels that left Japanese yards scrambling to build specialised ships.

The new law addresses each pain point head-on. Lease terms stretch to 40 years, aligning with debt tenors that international banks already use in Taiwan and the UK; a METI-led inter-agency council will run a single environmental baseline for each “Promotion Area,” eliminating duplicate dolphin and seabird surveys; and foreign flag installation vessels will receive automatic waivers, shaving an estimated eight percent off construction costs.

What the New Law Actually Changes

Aspect of regulation	Earlier framework	EEZ amendment (2025)	Practical effect
Geographic scope	Territorial waters only	Entire EEZ (≈ 4 million km²)	Unlocks deep-water sites with stronger winds
Site lease length	30 years max	40 years standard	Aligns with international project-finance tenors
Permitting	Separate approvals from multiple ministries	One-stop Inter-Agency Council led by METI	Cuts lead times by roughly one-third
Environmental studies	Developer funds its own EIA each time	Government funds baseline for every Promotion Area	Eliminates duplicate wildlife surveys
Construction vessels	Foreign heavy-lift ships required ad-hoc waivers	Blanket access for foreign flag vessels	Reduces installation cost ± 8 %

Each column tells the same story: the amendment removes every structural bottleneck that had slowed Japan’s first offshore auctions.

From coastal shelves to deep-water frontiers

Japan’s geology is destiny: outside a narrow ribbon of continental shelf the seabed plunges hundreds of metres, making fixed-bottom turbines impractical. Floating foundations, semi-submersibles and tension-leg platforms tethered like giant pontoons have always been the logical answer, but until this week developers simply had nowhere legal to anchor them. The EEZ amendment unlocks steady 7.5–8.5 m/s winds in deep waters off Kyūshū, Shikoku and southern Honshū, where capacity factors above 50 percent are achievable. A 2023 study for the Renewable Energy Institute calculated that Kyūshū alone could host 173 GW of floating capacity, with 29 GW more off Shikoku (see Chart 2 below).

Region	Technical potential (floating, GW)	Share of national total
Kyūshū	173.0	31 %
Shikoku	29.3	5 %
Hokkaidō	173.5	31 %
Tōhoku	61.4	11 %
Remainder	114.0	22 %

Reading the numbers — If only five percent of Kyūshū’s potential is built, the output would surpass the capacity of a large nuclear station, but with zero imported fuel and near-zero carbon.

Floating wind is still pricier than bottom-fixed hardware, but the learning curve is steep: Japan’s 2013 Fukushima Forward demonstrator cost ¥420/MWh; current commercial tenders in Scotland and Norway clear below ¥200/MWh. METI’s own models suggest EEZ arrays will reach ¥120-140/kWh (≈ US$80-95/MWh) by 2030, undercutting imported LNG on a lifecycle basis.

Targets, trajectories and the scale of the challenge

To hit the government’s upper-end 45 GW goal by 2040 Japan must build roughly 4.9 GW every year throughout the 2030s, 20 times its average annual rate so far. Chart 1 shows that yawning gap between intentions and reality. The national grid operator, OCCTO, says it has pencilled in 20 GW of new offshore interconnection capacity by 2032, with high-voltage links planned for both the Japan Sea and Pacific coasts. New ports including Kitakyushu, Saiki, and Ishikari are being dredged and reinforced to handle 100-metre blades and 15-MW nacelles.

Financing seems to be queuing up. JBIC has created a ¥500 billion “Floating-Wind Window,” while domestic banks such as Sumitomo Mitsui are bundling green-loan products specifically for EEZ projects. Recent corporate power-purchase agreements signed by Sony, Kirin and Nippon Steel at ¥10-12/kWh hint at healthy price discovery even before large-scale auctions begin.

Environmental dividends

Lifecycle analyses place modern offshore wind at roughly 12 g CO₂-e/kWh, versus ≈ 490 g for LNG-fired power on Japan’s current grid mix. Replacing just one gigawatt-hour of Kyūshū grid electricity with EEZ wind therefore avoids about 450 tonnes of CO₂-e. Multiply that across even half of the 10 GW 2030 target and the avoided emissions exceed the annual footprint of the entire city of Kobe. Yet not every stakeholder is cheering. Fishermen’s unions worry about cable corridors through prized squid grounds; shipping lines want wider safety buffers around turbine clusters; and conservation groups have demanded stricter monitoring of whale migrations through the Kuroshio Current. The amendment nods to such concerns by mandating community benefit funds and adaptive management plans, but critics argue enforcement will be key.

Cost Trajectory and Competitiveness

Generation option	Typical 2025 levelised cost (US$/MWh, real)	Carbon intensity (g CO₂-e/kWh)	Price volatility (σ, 2019-24)
Imported LNG (combined-cycle)	90–120	≈ 490	41 %
Offshore wind, fixed-bottom (2025 Japan)	110–140	12	18 %
Offshore wind, floating EEZ (2030 projection)	80–95	12	12 %

The amendment does not merely open new acreage; it accelerates a cost curve that is already within sight of parity with fossil imports.

Milestones on the Road to the First EEZ Turbine

Stage	Target date	Responsible body
Publish Promotion-Area shortlist	August 2025	Inter-Agency Council
Launch first commercial auction (4 × 800 MW)	March 2026	METI / MLIT
Environmental baseline surveys complete	2026 – 2027	Ministry of the Environment
Construction of winning projects begins	2028	Consortia
First EEZ turbine grid-connected	Second half 2029	Consortia

The schedule shows a tight but realistic path from law to electrons. Missing any one checkpoint could push the first power date into the next decade, so investors will watch these milestones as leading indicators.

Regional Echoes Beyond Japan

Within forty-eight hours of Tokyo’s vote, South Korea tabled its own EEZ bill in committee. The Philippines’ Department of Energy reopened a consultation on deep-water leasing, and Vietnam’s Politburo ordered a review of capacity caps that currently restrict foreign investors. OEMs see a potential manufacturing corridor from Fukuoka through Kaohsiung to Vũng Tàu—a mirror of the supply-chain clustering that cut European offshore prices a decade ago. In effect, Japan’s legal pivot provides the anchor project volume Asia needed to commit billions to floating technology.

Mymland Take-Away

Japan’s EEZ reform removes many of the obstacles that have so far kept floating wind at the proposal stage. By unlocking deeper waters, extending lease terms, and trimming red tape, the legislation makes floating wind both bankable and scalable. With that backdrop, here’s what the shift means for Mymland:

• Cheaper, cleaner power Forty-year leases and shared baseline EIAs should lower PPA prices to a level that can meaningfully cut the embodied-carbon profile of any coastal redevelopment the company pursues.

• First-mover advantage Joining industry working groups before the first auction in March 2026 gives Mymland a seat at the table while tariffs and grid-tie rules are still being written.

• Storytelling upside Pairing restored historic buildings with locally generated offshore wind would create a distinctive ESG narrative for investors and visitors alike.

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Final Thought

Japan has opened an ocean-sized door for floating wind. The law promises faster permits, longer leases and a resource base big enough to redraw the region’s clean-energy map. For developers of any scale like Mymland included the message is the same: act early, partner wisely, and be ready when the first turbines rise beyond the territorial sea.